Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85f0…0a7a crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-4%) realized −$34 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%33W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$20
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$50
crypto 37% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.9% -3.3% 80% 60% -13.5%
≤30d 54 -8.1% -16.8% 61% 44% -15.9%
≤90d 54 -8.1% -16.8% 61% 44% -15.9%
all 54 -8.1% -16.8% 61% 44% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 44% -15.9%
10% -24.8% 31% -24.0%
15% -32.0% 24% -31.3%
20% -38.7% 19% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses33 / 21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage13d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $90 +$54 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$19 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$9 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $39 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $91 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $61 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $22 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.16 · official $82.11 (match) · 109 history records