Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85f1…5b82 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$291 (-39%) realized −$99 · open −$192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$64
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$322
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-80.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -67.2% -70.3% 0% 0% -42.4%
≤30d 6 -78.1% -80.2% 0% 0% -59.2%
≤90d 6 -78.1% -80.2% 0% 0% -59.2%
all 6 -78.1% -80.2% 0% 0% -59.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.2% 0% -59.2%
10% -82.1% 0% -63.1%
15% -83.8% 0% -66.7%
20% -85.4% 0% -70.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$22 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$192
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage16d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $350 $210 −$140 (-40%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $92 −$37 -40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$5 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -64%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 10¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $96 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $359 15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.75 · official $257.75 (match) · 30 history records