Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
85 0x85f7…2426 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% $0
politics 33% −$1
economics 7% $0
tech 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage100d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $215 $0 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $107 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $107 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $106 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $107 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $107 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $107 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $107 19d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $107 20d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 24d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 24d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $107 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $107 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 37d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 37d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $107 40d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $107 41d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 42d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 42d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 43d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 44d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $107 49d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $107 50d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $108 72d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $108 72d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $108 80d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $108 80d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 88d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $108 89d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $108 96d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 97d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 97d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records