trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 64% | 9% | -10.1% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 62% | 19% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 58% | 16% | -9.4% |
| all | 19 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 58% | 16% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.1% | 16% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -26.8% | 11% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -33.9% | 5% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -40.4% | 5% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $122 | $121 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $67 | $66 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | -14% |
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | -13% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $5 | $0 | +9% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $44 | −$5 | -12% |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $55 | +$3 | +5% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $118 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Jun 17 | $2 | +$1 | +67% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +22% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | May 30 | $3 | +$1 | +18% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 30 | $195 | +$5 | +2% |
| World Championships: Canada vs. Finland | May 30 | $2 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 30 | $6 | $0 | -3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 14 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |