Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
85 0x85f7…37ea other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$4
crypto 25% −$2
other 17% −$3
politics 10% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.8% -5.2% 64% 9% -10.1%
≤30d 16 -0.5% -9.9% 62% 19% -9.0%
≤90d 19 -10.6% -19.1% 58% 16% -9.4%
all 19 -10.6% -19.1% 58% 16% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 16% -9.4%
10% -26.8% 11% -18.0%
15% -33.9% 5% -26.0%
20% -40.4% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage137d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 89¢ 88¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -14%
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 17 $3 $0 -13%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 −$5 -12%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $55 +$3 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $118 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $2 $0 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $3 +$1 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 30 $195 +$5 +2%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $6 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 89¢ $67 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $123 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $1 1h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? SELL No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 1h
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL No 82¢ $3 1h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $39 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $58 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $118 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 18d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 62¢ $2 18d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 18d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 18d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $55 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $118 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 94¢ $1 34d
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 87¢ $1 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $195 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 81¢ $1 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 81¢ $1 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 84¢ $3 42d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1 42d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 42d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1 42d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 94¢ $1 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.04 · official $237.04 (match) · 62 history records