Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85fa…4e16 weather 104 markets active 8h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$51 (-25%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate69%71W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$48
weather 24% −$2
tech 22% −$2
other 6% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 65 -4.3% -13.4% 94% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 65 -4.3% -13.4% 94% 0% -13.2%
all 103 -23.3% -30.6% 69% 9% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 9% -33.1%
10% -37.2% 8% -39.5%
15% -43.3% 7% -45.3%
20% -48.9% 6% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses71 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 106°F or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 8h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 8h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 8h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 8h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 8h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 8h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 106°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 181 history records