Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x85fc…8700 crypto 221 markets active 13h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,040 (+25%) realized +$16,064 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%124W / 96L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$722
7 days+$3,713
14 days+$12,217
30 days+$14,880
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14,880
other 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -0.8% -10.2% 51% 51% +4.2%
≤30d 220 +6.7% -3.5% 56% 56% +12.1%
≤90d 220 +6.7% -3.5% 56% 56% +12.1%
all 220 +6.7% -3.5% 56% 56% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 56% +12.1%
10% -12.7% 55% +1.3%
15% -21.1% 53% -8.4%
20% -28.9% 52% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$270 vs −$194 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$16,064
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses124 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage27d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes 25¢ 19¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $247 +$198 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$74 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $309 +$225 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $361 +$283 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $77 +$173 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$116 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $515 +$340 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$64 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $258 +$181 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $517 +$436 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 09 $519 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $258 −$22 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$76 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $258 +$200 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $932 +$984 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $1,992 +$961 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $5,932 +$1,331 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $626 −$604 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $2,102 +$4,267 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $1,113 +$844 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $1,857 −$1,800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $936 −$900 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $1,557 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $619 −$600 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $41 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $258 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $258 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $53 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.00 · official $76.00 (match) · 551 history records