Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8606…c04f crypto 150 markets active 12h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,887 (+1%) realized +$1,878 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate92%136W / 12L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,331per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$5,896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$482
14 days+$855
30 days+$1,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$1,610
other 3% +$29
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 67 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 1% -8.8%
≤90d 148 -1.1% -10.6% 92% 3% -8.8%
all 148 -1.1% -10.6% 92% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 3% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 1% -17.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,421) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$55 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$5,896
Realized+$1,878
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses136 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage62d
Avg bet$1,331
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,729 $3,722 −$8 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,158 $2,175 +$16 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5,870 +$41 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5,815 +$24 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $4,130 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $5,784 +$29 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $3,158 +$37 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,748 +$81 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $921 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $3,909 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,840 +$46 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,799 +$56 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,807 +$42 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,825 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,071 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4,170 +$79 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $569 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $4,668 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,823 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,904 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4,450 +$18 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,573 +$20 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4,366 +$43 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4,526 +$22 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,395 +$40 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4,278 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4,228 +$67 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $4,278 +$45 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $4,250 +$56 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,567 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,609 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,690 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,436 +$21 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,538 +$27 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,509 +$37 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,517 −$10 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,510 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,421 +$40 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $147 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,407 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,541 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,359 +$37 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $846 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,437 +$54 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $1,237 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $744 +$22 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,335 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,193 +$11 +1%
Ethereum above 2,300 on May 13, 3PM ET? May 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10AM ET May 29 $486 −$486 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,273 +$57 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,365 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2,160 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $3,731 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5,911 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $3,249 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $632 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,980 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5,840 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $50 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $94 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $996 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $18 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,663 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $7 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $8 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $7 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $17 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $121 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $40 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $8 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $13 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $13 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $369 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $28 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,896.28 · official $5,896.28 (match) · 696 history records