Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
86 0x8607…aee6 sports 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$425 (+12%) realized +$439 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%130W / 93L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$210
14 days+$87
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$414
crypto 11% +$5
world 7% −$23
tech 2% −$6
economics 2% $0
other 1% +$26
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +45.9% +32.0% 86% 66% +32.5%
≤30d 116 +11.5% +0.9% 60% 52% +7.3%
≤90d 199 +14.0% +3.1% 59% 52% +4.9%
all 223 +10.9% +0.4% 58% 52% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 52% +3.7%
10% -9.3% 49% -6.2%
15% -18.0% 46% -15.3%
20% -26.1% 43% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$465
Realized+$439
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses130 / 93
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions26
Markets (closed)223 / 249
History coverage111d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 80¢ $20 $46 +$26 (+130%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Buvaysar Gadamauri 53¢ 73¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 66¢ 42¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-37%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 53¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins 55¢ 53¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Yes 75¢ 70¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Sapfo Sakellaridi vs Raluca Georgiana Serban Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $8 −$8 -99%
ITF Zagreb: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Caroline Werner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF kiseljak: Yaroslav Demin vs Younes Lalami Laaroussi Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Nice: Jenny Lim vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: William Grant vs Jeremy Schifris Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +17%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $10 +$7 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 10 $10 +$7 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 10 $10 +$9 +90%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 10 $10 +$10 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $10 +$13 +124%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 +$14 +134%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $20 +$20 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $20 +$40 +197%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $30 +$35 +114%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $30 −$30 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +29%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $10 +$1 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 02 $20 +$26 +129%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 30 $10 +$2 +15%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $10 +$10 +101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 30 $10 +$12 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 65¢ $10 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $10 1h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 53¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 47¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $20 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $20 1h
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 51¢ $8 5d
ITF Zagreb: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Caroline Werner BUY Caroline Werner 43¢ $10 5d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Sapfo Sakellaridi vs Raluca Georgiana Serban BUY Raluca Georgiana Serban 59¢ $10 5d
ITF kiseljak: Yaroslav Demin vs Younes Lalami Laaroussi BUY Younes Lalami Laaroussi 43¢ $10 5d
ITF Nice: Jenny Lim vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Margaux Rouvroy 53¢ $10 5d
ITF Nyiregyhaza: William Grant vs Jeremy Schifris BUY Jeremy Schifris 48¢ $10 5d
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax BUY Thomas Faurel 59¢ $10 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.51 · official $467.96 (match) · 420 history records