Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

86 0x8608…8b76 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$120 (-48%) realized −$37 · open −$83

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-56.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-52.2%	-56.7%	33%	33%	-93.1%
≤90d	3	-52.2%	-56.7%	33%	33%	-93.1%
all	3	-52.2%	-56.7%	33%	33%	-93.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.7%	33%	-93.1%
10%	-60.9%	33%	-93.8%
15%	-64.7%	33%	-94.4%
20%	-68.1%	0%	-94.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -92% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$62 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.02 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized−$37

Unrealized−$83

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)3 / 6

History coverage12d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$31	$31	+$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Algeria?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$51	$0	−$50 (-99%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$32	$0	−$32 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$24	−$23	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$7	+$3	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$32	1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Algeria?	BUY Yes	8¢	$52	1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$33	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	23¢	$24	8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$7	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.37 · official $31.37 (match) · 8 history records