Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8609…a968 crypto 1173 markets active 11h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$577 (-2%) realized −$577 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%668W / 505L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$608
7 days−$740
14 days−$479
30 days−$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$608
sports 32% −$140
other 2% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 50% -19.7%
≤30d 1126 -3.2% -12.4% 57% 56% -12.4%
≤90d 1173 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 56% -13.0%
all 1173 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 56% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 56% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 46% -21.3%
15% -28.9% 35% -28.9%
20% -35.9% 25% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$577
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses668 / 505
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1173 / 1173
History coverage33d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1173 Trades
no open positions (407 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$43 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$32 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$60 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$289 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$44 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$65 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$65 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$52 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$60 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$60 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$119 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $61 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $61 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $64 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $61 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $62 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $61 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $61 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $64 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $63 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $61 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $61 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $62 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $62 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $61 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $62 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $62 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $63 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $62 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $62 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $64 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $64 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $64 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $61 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $63 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $62 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $62 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $62 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $62 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.33 · official $98.34 (match) · 2411 history records