Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8609…9be9 sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$757 (-12%) realized −$677 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%59W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$207
7 days+$326
14 days+$344
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$510
weather 10% −$102
other 7% +$65
crypto 1% −$16
world 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +171.4% +145.6% 83% 83% +86.7%
≤30d 84 +17.9% +6.7% 56% 50% -13.7%
≤90d 103 +15.8% +4.8% 57% 52% -16.3%
all 103 +15.8% +4.8% 57% 52% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 52% -16.3%
10% -5.2% 43% -24.3%
15% -14.4% 35% -31.6%
20% -22.8% 22% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$51 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized−$677
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses59 / 44
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 111
History coverage36d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 92¢ 100¢ $230 $250 +$20 (+9%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 63¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $90 +$101 +112%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Jun 28 $28 +$75 +266%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$81 +158%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 −$49 -48%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Jun 27 $25 +$104 +416%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$15 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$46 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 20 $31 +$59 +194%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $57 +$27 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$17 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$7 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $55 +$28 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $77 −$63 -82%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$15 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$12 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $39 +$23 +59%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $47 +$37 +80%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $70 +$26 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $60 +$10 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $33 +$27 +82%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $22 +$11 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $35 +$24 +68%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $82 +$5 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $74 +$8 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $15 +$7 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$18 +342%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $75 +$20 +26%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$25 +121%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $66 +$5 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$16 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $231 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 63¢ $101 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY 46¢ $90 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL 28¢ $52 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 53¢ $101 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 27¢ $28 41h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 19¢ $25 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/ BUY 15¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Korea R BUY 33¢ $28 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia w BUY 12¢ $27 5d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 44¢ $12 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $35 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $44 8d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2 BUY 33¢ $31 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $85 10d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $57 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $40 11d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 13d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 12¢ $6 13d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 74¢ $21 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $21 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 59¢ $13 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 11¢ $13 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 64¢ $77 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $76 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $61 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.95 · official $249.95 (match) · 232 history records