Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
86 0x860a…4ce1 other 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$31
finance 17% −$11
sports 16% −$20
world 5% $0
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +13.9% +3.1% 55% 55% -18.7%
≤30d 13 +6.7% -3.5% 54% 54% -12.1%
≤90d 13 +6.7% -3.5% 54% 54% -12.1%
all 13 +6.7% -3.5% 54% 54% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 54% -12.1%
10% -12.7% 54% -20.5%
15% -21.1% 31% -28.2%
20% -28.9% 23% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage50d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 85¢ 99¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $17 −$15 -89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $68 +$23 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 37¢ $10 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $5 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 7d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 42¢ $20 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $20 21d
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 27d
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 27d
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $68 27d
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 28d
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $15 28d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $17 50d
Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.90 · official $44.90 (match) · 35 history records