Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x860c…d391 crypto 281 markets active 6h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%88W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -29.8% -36.5% 19% 18% -38.3%
≤30d 281 -4.1% -13.2% 31% 31% -17.0%
≤90d 281 -4.1% -13.2% 31% 31% -17.0%
all 281 -4.1% -13.2% 31% 31% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 31% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 30% -24.9%
15% -29.1% 30% -32.2%
20% -36.1% 29% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses88 / 193
Open positions0
Markets (closed)281 / 281
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 281 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 654 history records