Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
86 0x860d…5648 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$4,606 (+23%) realized +$4,300 · open +$306
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,850
7 days+$3,211
14 days+$3,211
30 days+$3,211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$2,804
sports 39% +$3,149
politics 3% −$566
economics 3% −$122
crypto 2% −$400
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +38.7% +25.5% 42% 42% +14.2%
≤30d 33 +38.7% +25.5% 42% 42% +14.2%
≤90d 36 +35.8% +22.9% 44% 42% +12.1%
all 42 +32.0% +19.5% 50% 43% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 43% +11.3%
10% +8.0% 40% +0.6%
15% -2.4% 33% -9.1%
20% -12.0% 29% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +119% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$397 vs −$184 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$1,206
Realized+$4,300
Unrealized+$306
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage237d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $300 $462 +$162 (+54%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $300 $374 +$74 (+25%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $300 $371 +$71 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $303 −$303 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $291 −$291 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $103 −$84 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $506 −$506 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Jun 17 $566 −$566 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $266 −$266 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$161 +79%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $506 +$149 +30%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $204 +$368 +180%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,324 +$1,282 +55%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $509 −$29 -6%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$18 -18%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$14 -14%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $304 +$296 +97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $102 +$417 +407%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$534 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $103 +$557 +543%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $506 +$347 +68%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $103 −$16 -16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $304 +$213 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $305 +$426 +139%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,018 +$846 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $154 +$1,267 +823%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $1,900 +$308 +16%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 31 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $500 +$3 +0%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $2,300 +$625 +27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $300 +$144 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $500 +$31 +6%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $1,000 +$33 +3%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $69 −$40 -58%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $500 +$148 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $102 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,606 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 58¢ $239 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 41¢ $479 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $509 30h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $84 31h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 10¢ $88 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 33h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $204 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $506 33h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 33h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $506 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $303 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 19¢ $102 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 36¢ $102 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $304 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 99¢ $660 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $853 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,205.67 · official $1,205.67 (match) · 106 history records