Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x860d…6071
other · 756 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$5,564 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,265 · open +$259
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,116
Realized+$5,265
Unrealized+$259
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses339 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions378
Markets (closed)517 / 756
History coverage57d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 378 History 517 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days+$3,124
14 days+$2,472
30 days+$4,825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 86¢ $1,496 $1,903 +$407 (+27%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1,003 $894 −$109 (-11%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $490 $463 −$27 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $261 $278 +$17 (+6%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $197 $222 +$25 (+13%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $182 $196 +$15 (+8%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 34¢ $188 $173 −$15 (-8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $144 $160 +$16 (+11%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $174 $152 −$23 (-13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $72 $117 +$45 (+62%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 73¢ 76¢ $110 $114 +$4 (+4%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 43¢ 46¢ $87 $93 +$6 (+7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $97 $88 −$8 (-9%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 69¢ 88¢ $69 $88 +$18 (+27%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 16¢ 18¢ $78 $87 +$9 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $98 $86 −$12 (-12%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 40¢ 42¢ $81 $83 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $88 $82 −$6 (-7%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $79 $81 +$2 (+3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $67 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $74 $70 −$4 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" 20+ times during the U Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $90 +$17 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$8 +42%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$8 +42%
Will the announcers say "Yellow Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -73%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 +$1 +108%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $64 +$36 +56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $82 +$18 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $433 +$737 +170%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$1,525
politics 46% +$3,979
sports 1% −$11
tech 1% −$14
world 0% +$3
finance 0% +$47
economics 0% +$4
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 1h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $115 1h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $80 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $3 9h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $3 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 9h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 28¢ $1 15h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 26¢ $4 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 16h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 94¢ $5 16h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 91¢ $70 17h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? SELL No 92¢ $5 17h
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? SELL No 42¢ $2 17h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 17h
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -24.5% -31.7% 55% 24% +44.2%
≤30d 339 -11.4% -19.8% 66% 25% +15.0%
≤90d 517 -5.2% -14.2% 66% 26% +3.2%
all 517 -5.2% -14.2% 66% 26% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 26% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 17% -6.7%
15% -29.9% 13% -15.7%
20% -36.8% 9% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,115.74 · official $7,115.07 (match) · 3500 history records