Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x860d…2cd9 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+0%) realized +$1,418 · open −$1,346
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate83%30W / 6L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$738per market
Trades / day89.3pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,528
other 2% −$397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 42% -11.6%
≤30d 36 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 42% -11.6%
≤90d 36 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 42% -11.6%
all 36 +2.9% -6.9% 83% 42% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 42% -11.6%
10% -15.8% 17% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -23.9% 11% -27.8%
20% -31.4% 6% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,021) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$532 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,691
Realized+$1,418
Unrealized−$1,346
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses30 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$738
Trades / day89.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 65¢ 60¢ $1,816 $1,690 −$126 (-7%)
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Sandro Kopp 95¢ 0¢ $738 $0 −$738 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 81¢ 0¢ $483 $0 −$483 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Jesse De Jager Jun 27 $702 +$77 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $504 −$384 -76%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $527 −$23 -4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $1,003 +$214 +21%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 27 $870 +$143 +16%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $709 +$164 +23%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 27 $526 +$37 +7%
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Eva Marie Voracek Jun 27 $111 +$32 +29%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 27 $565 +$71 +13%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva Jun 26 $502 +$59 +12%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $1,216 −$1,195 -98%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Carolyn Ansari Jun 26 $1,148 +$54 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $1,012 +$157 +16%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $676 +$338 +50%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $592 +$77 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $406 +$198 +49%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $382 +$19 +5%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $381 +$3 +1%
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang Jun 26 $349 +$28 +8%
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek Jun 26 $194 +$159 +82%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winne Jun 26 $193 +$1 +0%
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Chenting Zhu Jun 26 $112 +$85 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $499 −$397 -79%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $1,181 −$694 -59%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $967 +$109 +11%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $598 −$501 -84%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $1,484 +$69 +5%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 25 $674 +$65 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $1,280 +$145 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina Jun 25 $1,146 +$77 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $846 +$68 +8%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $1,127 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $1,043 +$86 +8%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 25 $1,021 +$22 +2%
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 25 $57 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $919 +$44 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $1,853 4m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp SELL Inaki Montes 22¢ $58 18m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 95¢ $85 22m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 95¢ $657 22m
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Jesse De Jager SELL Marc Majdandzic 100¢ $750 25m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 81¢ $491 1h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 57¢ $158 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland SELL West Indies 20¢ $119 1h
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Jesse De Jager SELL Marc Majdandzic 79¢ $29 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY West Indies 81¢ $397 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY West Indies 81¢ $107 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL Johnny Speeds 53¢ $141 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL Johnny Speeds 77¢ $80 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL Johnny Speeds 77¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL Johnny Speeds 77¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL Johnny Speeds 77¢ $68 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL Johnny Speeds 77¢ $68 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL Johnny Speeds 77¢ $68 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P SELL Johnny Speeds 77¢ $68 4h
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Jesse De Jager BUY Marc Majdandzic 87¢ $702 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $23 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $25 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $58 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $30 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $132 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $11 5h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 70¢ $144 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,690.67 · official $1,690.67 (match) · 218 history records