Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x860f…e004 world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 26% −$9
sports 12% −$3
politics 12% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.4% -7.4% 62% 25% -9.7%
≤30d 28 +1.8% -7.9% 46% 11% -9.5%
≤90d 74 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 4% -9.6%
all 80 -2.2% -11.5% 35% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.0% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage531d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $7 +$1 +11%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $104 +$2 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $111 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $180 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $165 −$2 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $72 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $145 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $33 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $33 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $14 −$1 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $121 +$1 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $24 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $39 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $72 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $8 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $34 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $14 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $21 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $13 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.85 · official $30.96 (match) · 386 history records