Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x860f…9402 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$58 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%35W / 3L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$5
weather 21% $0
other 16% +$8
politics 12% −$4
world 9% +$43
sports 7% −$5
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.2% -8.4% 92% 8% -8.1%
≤30d 38 +1.2% -8.4% 92% 8% -8.1%
≤90d 38 +1.2% -8.4% 92% 8% -8.1%
all 38 +1.2% -8.4% 92% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 8% -8.1%
10% -17.2% 5% -16.9%
15% -25.2% 5% -25.0%
20% -32.5% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,223
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses35 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $578 $574 −$4 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $399 $399 −$0 (-0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $251 $251 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET Jun 22 $188 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $180 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $244 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $203 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 22 $573 +$1 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $286 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 22 $209 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $402 +$43 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $443 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $226 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $226 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Marcell Ozuna: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +250%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Willi Castro: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $166 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $233 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $188 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $180 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $244 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $203 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 100¢ $276 9h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 100¢ $302 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $209 13h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 100¢ $251 13h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $286 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $193 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $209 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $210 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $233 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $226 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $226 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $281 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $293 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 31h
Marcell Ozuna: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 36h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $23 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $21 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $21 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,223.20 · official $1,223.20 (match) · 81 history records