Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8612…a89a world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
other 26% −$4
sports 14% −$2
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 63 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 63 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.2%
all 63 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage18d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 28 $64 $0 +0%
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju Jun 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30? Jun 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? Jun 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $46 −$1 -1%
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 21 $62 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $29 −$1 -5%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Austria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 20 $45 −$3 -6%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $6 $0 -2%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 14 $21 $0 -2%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -4%
Joventut vs. Valencia: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December Jun 14 $13 $0 -1%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 13 $23 $0 +2%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most Jun 13 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 SELL No 19¢ $2 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $32 1h
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju SELL Yes 74¢ $41 11h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $15 11h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $11 11h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju BUY Yes 74¢ $15 11h
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $10 30h
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $10 30h
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $13 33h
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $13 33h
Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30? SELL No 52¢ $31 33h
Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30? BUY No 52¢ $31 33h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? SELL No 94¢ $14 34h
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $14 34h
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? SELL No 63¢ $13 35h
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? BUY No 63¢ $13 35h
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $32 41h
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $32 41h
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $12 41h
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $12 41h
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 4d
Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? SELL No 35¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? BUY No 34¢ $5 4d
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 60¢ $45 6d
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $46 6d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records