Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
86 0x8616…8eb1 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$15 (+16%) realized +$15 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$7
other 33% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.9% +6.7% 56% 56% +18.4%
≤30d 9 +17.9% +6.7% 56% 56% +18.4%
≤90d 9 +17.9% +6.7% 56% 56% +18.4%
all 9 +17.9% +6.7% 56% 56% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 56% +18.4%
10% -3.5% 56% +7.1%
15% -12.8% 56% -3.3%
20% -21.4% 56% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 24¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$6 +140%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 33¢ $5 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 34h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will T BUY 6¢ $3 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 47h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 47h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $4 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.24 · official $37.24 (match) · 21 history records