Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8616…3bb0 sports 1589 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 123d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,364 (-6%) realized −$1,345 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%775W / 806L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$289
14 days+$175
30 days+$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$869
other 12% −$131
crypto 2% −$97
politics 0% −$5
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -1.9% -11.2% 55% 51% +2.1%
≤30d 351 -4.3% -13.5% 50% 49% -5.9%
≤90d 1081 -8.6% -17.3% 47% 46% -12.2%
all 1581 -6.8% -15.7% 49% 47% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 47% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 43% -21.7%
15% -31.1% 37% -29.3%
20% -37.9% 32% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$1,345
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses775 / 806
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1581 / 1589
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1581 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $31 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 62¢ 72¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 52¢ 46¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 61¢ 53¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 50¢ 46¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 54¢ 51¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs HOTU 34¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 +$74 +242%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $44 +$56 +129%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $15 +$11 +70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $33 −$13 -39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$39 +96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$36 +238%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $36 +$31 +84%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$15 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $41 +$9 +23%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $52 −$16 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$39 +94%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$55 +134%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 +$20 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $25 +$13 +52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 +$6 +26%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +56%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $36 −$10 -28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $19 +$51 +276%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $211 +$22 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 28¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 28¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 40¢ $8 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 13h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 61¢ $15 14h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 46¢ $5 14h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $5 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 15¢ $5 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 19h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 52¢ $25 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $25 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $44 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $37 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $15 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 82¢ $33 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 37h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $10 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 38h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 62¢ $25 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $17 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 68¢ $54 38h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $5 39h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $11 39h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 81¢ $41 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 40h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $20 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.86 · official $127.86 (match) · 3500 history records