Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8617…9c3c other 8 markets active 3d ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-12%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$130
sports 20% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -47.5% -52.5% 20% 20% -30.2%
≤30d 8 -26.4% -33.4% 25% 25% -21.3%
≤90d 8 -26.4% -33.4% 25% 25% -21.3%
all 8 -26.4% -33.4% 25% 25% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 25% -21.3%
10% -39.8% 25% -28.8%
15% -45.6% 25% -35.7%
20% -50.9% 25% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$58 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage15d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$166 +162%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $51 +$115 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $101 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $267 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 6d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records