Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8623…34a6 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,279 (-38%) realized −$1,983 · open +$704
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$1,987
sports 26% +$700
other 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-71.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -68.5% -71.5% 17% 17% -85.1%
≤30d 12 -68.5% -71.5% 17% 17% -85.1%
≤90d 12 -68.5% -71.5% 17% 17% -85.1%
all 12 -68.5% -71.5% 17% 17% -85.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.5% 17% -85.1%
10% ← realistic here -74.2% 17% -86.5%
15% -76.7% 8% -87.8%
20% -79.0% 8% -89.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$217 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,684
Realized−$1,983
Unrealized+$704
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Eero Vasa 28¢ 80¢ $470 $1,332 +$863 (+184%)
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe Alvaro Guillen Meza 43¢ 76¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Plovdiv: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Petr Nesterov Daniel Dutra da Silva 22¢ 6¢ $200 $59 −$141 (-70%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri Sergey Fomin 31¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $318 −$318 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $420 −$420 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $419 −$419 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $104 +$156 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Eero Vasa 35¢ $275 36m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY No 0¢ $11 39m
Plovdiv: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Petr Nesterov BUY Daniel Dutra da Silva 19¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 51m
Plovdiv: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Petr Nesterov BUY Daniel Dutra da Silva 26¢ $102 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Sergey Fomin 31¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $107 1h
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 43¢ $102 1h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Eero Vasa 18¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Eero Vasa 31¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,683.63 · official $1,164.09 · 46 history records