Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:45:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8625…0c5d sports 231 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%20W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$12
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$10
sports 22% −$3
other 21% −$11
culture 7% −$2
crypto 7% −$2
world 6% −$1
economics 4% $0
tech 4% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 74 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 230 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses20 / 210
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage154d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 97¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $19 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $81 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $13 $0 -3%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 09 $11 $0 -2%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 08 $24 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 08 $18 $0 +2%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 08 $14 $0 -2%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $17 $0 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $208 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 04 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $23 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 2h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $7 10h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $12 10h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $12 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $16 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $17 20h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $6 21h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $6 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 90¢ $19 32h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $18 33h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $18 41h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $14 41h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $14 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $18 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $18 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $8 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $18 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $19 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.63 · official $5.63 (match) · 990 history records