Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
86 0x8625…aac4 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 31% $0
politics 7% +$2
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% +$1
weather 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 37 +1.4% -8.2% 43% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -9.2%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.0% 3% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage463d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $61 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $37 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $4 $0 -9%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? May 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $8 +$1 +12%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $6 $0 +6%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $8 $0 -1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 28 $1 +$2 +138%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on March 17? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $10 43m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $17 43m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $3 43m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $31 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $32 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $30 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $26 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $33 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $33 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $25 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $5 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records