Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x8627…5382 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 650d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,344 (+0%) realized +$5,444 · open −$1,100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%146W / 109L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,752per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$583est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$11,100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 650d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$15,943
sports 33% +$5,704
world 1% −$3,908
crypto 0% +$452
politics 0% +$222
finance 0% −$182
economics 0% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.6% -7.2% 58% 58% +14.1%
≤30d 24 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 46% +13.3%
≤90d 39 -24.7% -31.9% 38% 36% +5.9%
all 255 -5.1% -14.2% 57% 53% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 53% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 46% -16.0%
15% -29.9% 35% -24.2%
20% -36.8% 23% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$7,375) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,240 vs −$4,161 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

650d coverage
Net worth$11,100
Realized+$5,444
Unrealized−$1,100
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses146 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$583
Open positions2
Markets (closed)255 / 257
History coverage650d
Avg bet$4,752
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 70¢ $7,400 $7,050 −$350 (-5%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 40¢ $4,800 $4,050 −$750 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $22,548 +$16,861 +75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $14,463 +$11,028 +76%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8,073 +$6,410 +79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4,741 +$3,331 +70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $286 −$278 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12,013 −$11,832 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,844 −$2,781 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9,332 −$9,225 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8,224 +$4,276 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10,001 +$4,999 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $4,443 −$4,350 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6,560 +$8,440 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7,277 +$3,637 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,102 −$5,040 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,778 −$3,700 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10,918 +$5,241 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,085 −$3,990 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,621 −$4,558 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,291 +$9,477 +221%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $189 −$189 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6,639 +$13,939 +210%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,889 −$1,847 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,315 −$1,300 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 29 $353 −$352 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $770 −$403 -52%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $767 −$750 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $327 −$320 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $3,343 −$480 -14%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $471 −$460 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 28 $918 −$903 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $3,096 +$665 +22%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $7,224 −$7,098 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 14 $215 −$103 -48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 14 $330 −$182 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $880 −$70 -8%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $355 +$145 +41%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $460 +$540 +117%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $465 +$35 +8%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $405 +$95 +24%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Mar 22 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $410 −$408 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $430 −$430 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $139 +$57 +41%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $415 +$85 +20%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $430 +$70 +16%
Will Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? Mar 22 $365 +$135 +37%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $703 −$703 -100%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 21 $590 −$10 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,729 34m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,729 57m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $4,875 59m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $17,022 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5,526 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $14,463 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $8,073 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $4,741 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 6¢ $286 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $12,013 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $32 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,804 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $9,332 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,755 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $3,235 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $4,443 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $3,235 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,334 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $6,667 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $6,560 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $7,277 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 68¢ $3,433 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $2,036 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $1,669 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,742 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $5,003 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,100.00 · official $11,200.00 (match) · 1659 history records