Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8627…fff5 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
other 36% −$1
sports 5% −$4
politics 4% $0
weather 4% +$6
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -2.1% -11.4% 23% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -9.1% -17.8% 21% 0% -10.2%
all 29 -4.9% -13.9% 48% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -22.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -29.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage492d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 97¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $94 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $33 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $42 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April? Mar 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 27? Mar 29 $18 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $18 $0 +2%
LSU vs. Kentucky Mar 06 $16 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on February 20? Mar 04 $10 +$6 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $19 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $30 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $23 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $33 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $33 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $30 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $30 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $13 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.65 · official $29.65 (match) · 94 history records