Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x862b…a6a6 sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 53L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$13
other 21% +$20
economics 8% −$7
sports 5% +$36
world 4% −$88
crypto 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.5% +28.9% 50% 50% -21.3%
≤30d 5 +14.3% +3.4% 20% 20% -19.7%
≤90d 47 +5.3% -4.7% 30% 15% -10.0%
all 89 +1.1% -8.5% 40% 30% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 30% -9.7%
10% -17.3% 30% -18.3%
15% -25.3% 28% -26.2%
20% -32.6% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage218d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $669 −$100 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$12 +100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? May 20 $55 −$5 -10%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $65 +$2 +4%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $95 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 23 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $150 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $150 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $200 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $500 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $450 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $12 +$8 +72%
Wild vs. Senators Apr 05 $22 +$24 +113%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 04 $392 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $245 +$3 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $150 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $100 +$1 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $926 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 26 $1,130 −$7 -1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 26 $496 $0 +0%
Valorant: Leviatán GC vs Polar Squad Esports GC (BO3) - VCT Game Chang Mar 25 $8 −$1 -14%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Mar 25 $7 +$6 +79%
Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 Mar 25 $23 +$23 +100%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $120 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $200 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $19 +$8 +45%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $200 $0 -0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $15 +$5 +30%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 17 $7 +$5 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $50 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $48 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $67 27d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $50 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $67 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $67 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $564 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $552 38d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $55 38d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 38d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $54 38d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 41d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 41d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 44d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $55 44d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 46d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 49d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 54d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 54d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 64d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 64d
Rangers vs. Panthers BUY Rangers 53¢ $7 64d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 90¢ $100 72d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $150 72d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $150 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 373 history records