Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x862d…6eb7 crypto 324 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,816 (-24%) realized −$2,555 · open +$739
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%160W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,129
7 days−$1,000
14 days−$1,986
30 days−$1,891
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$18
sports 31% −$1,426
other 25% +$321
world 0% −$10
finance 0% −$10
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 44% -32.9%
≤30d 321 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 49% -33.3%
≤90d 321 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 49% -33.3%
all 321 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 49% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 49% -33.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 45% -39.7%
15% -27.7% 42% -45.5%
20% -34.8% 37% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,110
Realized−$2,555
Unrealized+$739
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses160 / 161
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)321 / 324
History coverage16d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $360 $1,105 +$744 (+207%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 14¢ 42¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+204%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $172 +$121 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $669 −$666 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $190 −$189 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$8 +124%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$101 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$11 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$9 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $101 −$87 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $87 −$14 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$17 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$12 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 3m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $162 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $162 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $172 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,110.37 · official $1,110.37 (match) · 630 history records