Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x862e…ae64 world 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$19
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$20
other 21% −$2
politics 14% +$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 +16.1% +5.0% 40% 13% -6.2%
≤90d 15 +16.1% +5.0% 40% 13% -6.2%
all 39 +6.1% -4.0% 41% 5% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 5% -7.8%
10% -13.2% 5% -16.6%
15% -21.6% 3% -24.7%
20% -29.3% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.07 per $1 lost it wins $6.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage256d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $54 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $58 +$19 +32%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $77 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $68 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 20 $20 −$2 -10%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Oct 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $26 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 12 $9 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 14m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 14m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $41 14m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $31 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $23 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $15 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $15 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $55 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $54 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $32 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $40 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records