Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x862e…7972 other 78 markets active 10h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$12,530 (+48%) realized +$12,044 · open +$486
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%33W / 37L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$646
14 days+$309
30 days+$761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 55% +$12,219
other 27% −$265
sports 15% +$1,578
politics 1% −$322
world 1% −$207
economics 1% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +42.2% +28.7% 91% 82% +16.0%
≤30d 41 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 49% +0.0%
≤90d 51 -3.7% -12.9% 49% 47% -0.6%
all 70 -3.0% -12.3% 47% 41% +36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 41% +36.4%
10% -20.7% 37% +23.4%
15% -28.3% 34% +11.5%
20% -35.4% 29% +0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$563 vs −$173 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$2,162
Realized+$12,044
Unrealized+$486
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses33 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions6
Markets (closed)70 / 78
History coverage599d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $509 $722 +$213 (+42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $502 $711 +$209 (+42%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $243 $386 +$143 (+59%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $307 $265 −$43 (-14%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $53 −$51 (-49%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+145%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$85 -83%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $528 +$6 +1%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $707 +$106 +15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 +$131 +129%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$65 +65%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$11 +38%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $71 +$52 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $302 +$64 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $808 +$374 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $152 +$90 +60%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$49 -96%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $150 −$133 -88%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $32 −$21 -66%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $232 −$179 -77%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $199 −$181 -91%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$49 -48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$42 -42%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$409 +201%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $125 −$123 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $160 +$190 +119%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $222 +$234 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $179 +$43 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $807 −$787 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 −$43 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$63 -62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$136 +136%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $101 +$111 +109%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $499 +$350 +70%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $101 −$34 -34%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $201 +$130 +64%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $82 +$120 +146%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $78 −$78 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $100 +$101 +101%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $90 +$77 +86%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $250 −$125 -50%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $97 9h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 9h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 9h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 10h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 13h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 13h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 13h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 20h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 21h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,162.04 · official $2,162.04 (match) · 1106 history records