Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x8630…91c9 crypto 145 markets active 5d ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,437 (-8%) realized −$1,437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%84W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$560
14 days−$578
30 days−$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$318
other 14% −$184
sports 6% −$1,068
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -29.6% -36.3% 43% 22% -31.0%
≤30d 103 -14.0% -22.2% 67% 29% -13.2%
≤90d 103 -14.0% -22.2% 67% 29% -13.2%
all 145 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 29% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 29% -18.0%
10% -17.9% 17% -25.9%
15% -25.9% 10% -33.0%
20% -33.1% 6% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$52 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses84 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage181d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$41 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$85 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$99 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $205 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $280 −$89 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $126 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $304 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $304 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $227 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $447 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $426 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $226 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $305 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$41 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $401 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $281 +$69 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $429 +$73 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $503 −$70 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$48 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $45 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $43 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $33 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 573 history records