Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
86 0x8630…fafa other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$16 (+23%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$21
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$7
sports 25% +$4
crypto 15% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +103.2% +83.9% 88% 88% +38.5%
≤30d 10 +76.4% +59.6% 80% 80% +13.0%
≤90d 10 +76.4% +59.6% 80% 80% +13.0%
all 10 +76.4% +59.6% 80% 80% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.6% 80% +13.0%
10% +44.3% 70% +2.2%
15% +30.4% 70% -7.7%
20% +17.6% 40% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +388%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $5 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 23 history records