Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8635…3423 world 33 markets active 3d ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+7%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
other 20% +$7
sports 8% −$4
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% +$40
weather 2% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.3% -3.8% 67% 17% -8.5%
≤30d 15 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 13% -9.8%
≤90d 15 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 13% -9.8%
all 33 +5.5% -4.5% 55% 15% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 15% -3.4%
10% -13.6% 9% -12.7%
15% -22.0% 9% -21.1%
20% -29.6% 3% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.07 per $1 lost it wins $6.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage471d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $80 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 −$3 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $35 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will Armenia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 29 $60 +$1 +1%
Solana above $130 on March 28? Mar 29 $20 +$40 +198%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 16 $1 $0 -13%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $19 $0 +1%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 04 $19 $0 -2%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 04 $16 +$4 +22%
Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Napoli Beat Inter Milan? Mar 04 $11 +$5 +43%
Incarnate Word vs. Texas A&M Commerce Mar 01 $14 −$3 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $35 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $42 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $42 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $19 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $36 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $39 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $43 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $43 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records