Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8636…81d8 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$616 (+17%) realized +$637 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%27W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day63.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days+$665
14 days+$575
30 days+$575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$356
sports 37% +$1,052
tech 7% −$22
politics 6% −$9
world 5% −$104
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +43.7% +30.0% 42% 41% +8.6%
≤30d 66 +39.4% +26.1% 41% 39% +5.4%
≤90d 66 +39.4% +26.1% 41% 39% +5.4%
all 66 +39.4% +26.1% 41% 39% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.1% 39% +5.4%
10% ← realistic here +14.0% 32% -4.7%
15% +3.0% 26% -13.9%
20% -7.1% 23% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +100% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$43 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized+$637
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses27 / 39
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions23
Markets (closed)66 / 89
History coverage8d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day63.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $68 $76 +$8 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $86 $71 −$15 (-18%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 60¢ 94¢ $33 $51 +$19 (+57%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 46¢ $50 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 13¢ 10¢ $38 $31 −$7 (-18%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 16¢ 11¢ $37 $25 −$12 (-31%)
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? No 58¢ 57¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 94¢ 98¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 64¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 82¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 65¢ 90¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+39%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-87%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 25 $60 −$41 -69%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 +$7 +15%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$47 -94%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $50 +$10 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $24 +$9 +38%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $101 −$10 -9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 24 $38 +$5 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 +$12 +55%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $27 +$33 +124%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $4 +$14 +365%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $29 +$8 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $12 +$11 +93%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $80 +$16 +20%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$12 +121%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$4 -19%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 +$46 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$210 +206%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$29 +29%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $61 +$173 +281%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$329 +321%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $62 +$484 +785%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $21 +$480 +2334%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$91 +442%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$209 +510%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $12 −$4 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 46m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 41¢ $57 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $4 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $4 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $2 2h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $2 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $1 2h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $2 3h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $29 6h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $1 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $3 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $4 7h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $1 8h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $3 8h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 71¢ $8 9h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 9h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.72 · official $432.73 (match) · 553 history records