Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
86 0x8636…e41e other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$46 (+9%) realized +$39 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$89
sports 11% −$37
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -23.6% -30.9% 48% 48% +1.4%
≤30d 21 -23.6% -30.9% 48% 48% +1.4%
≤90d 21 -23.6% -30.9% 48% 48% +1.4%
all 21 -23.6% -30.9% 48% 48% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 48% +1.4%
10% -37.5% 48% -8.3%
15% -43.5% 43% -17.1%
20% -49.1% 24% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)21 / 28
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Yes 59¢ 78¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+31%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$5 +105%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$37 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 15h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $7 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 43h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.78 · official $141.78 (match) · 38 history records