Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8636…94d9 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3356 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,307 (-34%) realized −$3,287 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%26W / 517L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day3356.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3356 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-84.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 543 -82.4% -84.1% 5% 3% -42.7%
≤30d 543 -82.4% -84.1% 5% 3% -42.7%
≤90d 543 -82.4% -84.1% 5% 3% -42.7%
all 543 -82.4% -84.1% 5% 3% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3356.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -84.1% 3% -42.7%
10% ← realistic here -85.6% 2% -48.2%
15% -87.0% 2% -53.2%
20% -88.3% 2% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
39.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$3,287
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses26 / 517
Open positions1
Markets (closed)543 / 49
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day3356.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$47 -1893%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$35 -5579%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$82 -648%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$12 -170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$58 -1240%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$82 -746%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.00 · official $40.00 (match) · 3500 history records