Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8637…e37a world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% $0
other 9% +$1
politics 8% −$11
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +6.2% -3.9% 20% 20% -11.3%
≤90d 13 +3.1% -6.8% 31% 15% -9.6%
all 30 -1.6% -11.0% 53% 7% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 7% -11.4%
10% -19.5% 3% -19.9%
15% -27.3% 3% -27.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $33 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $59 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $11 −$1 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $27 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $31 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $26 +$6 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $30 −$4 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $30 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Dec 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $12 $0 -0%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $12 $0 -4%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 12 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $29 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $29 17h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $29 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $18 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $11 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $16 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $7 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $6 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $21 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $8 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 29¢ $10 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $11 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $26 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $27 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $31 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $14 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $17 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $31 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $32 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 70¢ $26 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $9 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $17 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $30 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $30 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 70¢ $7 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 69¢ $26 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.16 · official $28.68 (match) · 80 history records