Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8637…0223 world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$60 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%39W / 52L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$14
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$10
sports 28% +$42
other 27% −$2
crypto 3% −$2
politics 2% −$1
finance 1% +$2
tech 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 32 +2.6% -7.2% 38% 3% -9.0%
≤90d 40 +2.4% -7.4% 42% 2% -8.6%
all 91 +1.4% -8.3% 43% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -8.7%
10% -17.1% 2% -17.5%
15% -25.1% 1% -25.5%
20% -32.4% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.81 per $1 lost it wins $4.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses39 / 52
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage466d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $59 $54 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $97 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $107 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $186 +$4 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $182 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $96 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $164 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $107 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $82 +$8 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +66%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $179 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $172 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $161 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $96 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $88 +$3 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $202 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $97 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $81 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $82 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $182 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $96 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $84 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $83 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $291 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $199 −$2 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $137 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $766 +$5 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $143 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $384 +$37 +10%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $24 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 09 $2 $0 +25%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Starmer out before July? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $59 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $76 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $97 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $107 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $107 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $24 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $70 24h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $95 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $66 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $105 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $25 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $94 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $28 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $68 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $69 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.50 · official $54.50 (match) · 372 history records