Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8638…b43b sports 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$129
other 18% +$86
world 3% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 50% -11.9%
≤30d 32 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 50% -11.9%
≤90d 32 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 50% -11.9%
all 32 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 50% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 50% -11.9%
10% +8.1% 44% -20.3%
15% -2.4% 41% -28.0%
20% -11.9% 34% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$43 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 56¢ $49 $36 −$13 (-27%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 -21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $167 −$36 -21%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$50 +982%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$18 +90%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $24 −$3 -13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$17 -57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$34 -67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 +$26 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $433 −$428 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $242 +$192 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $111 +$131 +118%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 +$6 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $61 +$12 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$10 +102%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 10m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $34 14h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $62 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $0 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $61 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 47¢ $132 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $167 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 20h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $5 24h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 24h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes $10 39h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 70¢ $21 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL No 20¢ $17 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $51 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.73 · official $46.01 · 58 history records