Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8639…b8c4 crypto 348 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$223 (-6%) realized −$173 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%179W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$262
7 days−$284
14 days−$284
30 days−$592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% −$27
crypto 35% −$150
other 16% −$417
sports 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -88.2% -89.3% 0% 0% -96.9%
≤30d 167 -18.3% -26.1% 53% 26% -31.7%
≤90d 347 -15.1% -23.1% 52% 29% -23.3%
all 347 -15.1% -23.1% 52% 29% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 29% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 16% -30.6%
15% -37.2% 10% -37.3%
20% -43.4% 7% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses179 / 168
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)347 / 348
History coverage38d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $52 $2 −$50 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $258 −$252 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$10 -97%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $22 −$11 -53%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +102%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $37 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $34 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$12 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $35 −$8 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $154 3h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 15d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $31 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 84¢ $34 15d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $4 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 83¢ $30 15d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 15d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $23 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.82 · official $1.82 (match) · 1222 history records