Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x863b…09c3
crypto · 27 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$40 +50%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$8
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 2 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 66¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$5 +87%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $9 −$2 -28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +41%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 29 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $2 +$48 +2243%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% $0
crypto 34% +$36
other 23% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 57m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 58m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 59m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $1 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $4 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 43h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 43h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 43h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 43h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $11 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $6 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 50% -8.1%
≤30d 25 +61.9% +46.5% 48% 40% +37.9%
≤90d 25 +61.9% +46.5% 48% 40% +37.9%
all 25 +61.9% +46.5% 48% 40% +37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.5% 40% +37.9%
10% +32.4% 40% +24.7%
15% +19.6% 32% +12.6%
20% +7.9% 20% +1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.94 · official $7.94 (match) · 58 history records