Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
86 0x8640…cdf1 sports 211 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,240 (+5%) realized +$2,243 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%85W / 122L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$620est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$1,446
14 days−$919
30 days+$2,056
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$798
other 19% +$2,395
crypto 2% +$233
world 1% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +2.4% -7.3% 51% 51% -1.6%
≤30d 207 +10.7% +0.1% 41% 41% -5.5%
≤90d 207 +10.7% +0.1% 41% 41% -5.5%
all 207 +10.7% +0.1% 41% 41% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 41% -5.5%
10% -9.4% 40% -14.5%
15% -18.2% 37% -22.8%
20% -26.2% 33% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +33% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$192 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized+$2,243
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses85 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$620
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 211
History coverage25d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $193 −$190 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $316 −$310 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $356 +$524 +147%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$137 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $443 +$221 +50%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $224 +$325 +145%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $403 +$123 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $142 −$140 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $142 +$138 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $184 +$396 +216%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $407 −$407 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $808 −$808 -100%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 14 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Aruba end in a draw? Jun 14 $401 −$401 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $199 +$288 +145%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $251 +$350 +139%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $246 +$203 +82%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $254 +$341 +134%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 14 $335 −$330 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $295 +$322 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $301 +$421 +140%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $220 −$216 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $982 +$333 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $695 +$288 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $454 +$197 +43%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $503 −$500 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $194 −$190 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $362 −$357 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $277 +$75 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $392 +$83 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $199 +$301 +152%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $130 −$128 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$136 +89%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $142 +$122 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $498 +$980 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $325 +$315 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $193 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $316 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: Both Te BUY 3¢ $30 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Engla BUY 2¢ $31 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $254 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $640 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $664 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $443 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $356 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $549 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $224 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $526 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $403 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $142 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $153 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end BUY 0¢ $82 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $280 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $357 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $425 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $580 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $142 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $153 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $184 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.75 · official $555.75 · 382 history records