Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:05:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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86 0x8640…0e7d crypto 1394 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33,020 (-5%) realized −$33,099 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%822W / 571L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,061
7 days−$1,061
14 days−$1,061
30 days−$2,287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$40,009
sports 2% −$421
other 0% −$876
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -58.2% -62.2% 30% 30% -65.6%
≤30d 15 -61.5% -65.2% 27% 27% -75.1%
≤90d 342 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 56% -17.9%
all 1393 -5.1% -14.1% 59% 54% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 54% -15.8%
10% -22.4% 48% -23.8%
15% -29.9% 41% -31.2%
20% -36.7% 30% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$381 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$33,099
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses822 / 571
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1393 / 1394
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$431
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $200 $279 +$79 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $164 −$159 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $302 +$33 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $507 −$507 -100%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 03 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 03 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 03 $138 +$82 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 02 $512 −$512 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 02 $416 −$416 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 09 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 09 $710 +$151 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 09 $2,136 −$1,746 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 09 $1,914 +$955 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 09 $1,017 +$283 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 09 $513 +$270 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 09 $520 −$496 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 09 $514 +$303 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 09 $519 +$557 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 09 $518 +$501 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 09 $516 +$410 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 09 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 09 $1,035 +$944 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 09 $1,520 +$315 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 09 $3,067 +$1,295 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 09 $622 −$622 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 09 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 09 $2,158 −$2,158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 09 $444 +$379 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 09 $510 +$161 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 09 $510 +$175 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 09 $513 −$513 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 09 $615 −$615 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 09 $512 +$241 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 09 $515 +$361 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 09 $1,028 +$646 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 09 $510 −$510 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 09 $516 +$404 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 09 $1,024 +$481 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 09 $623 +$680 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 09 $1,029 −$1,029 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 09 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 09 $507 +$111 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 09 $1,022 +$441 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 09 $1,025 +$517 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $61 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $335 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $507 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $219 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 18d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 47¢ $71 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.72 · official $279.30 (match) · 3500 history records