Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8642…c576 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$942 (-31%) realized −$773 · open −$169
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$787
other 36% −$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -55.0% -59.3% 0% 0% -61.1%
≤30d 2 -55.0% -59.3% 0% 0% -61.1%
≤90d 31 -37.6% -43.5% 35% 32% -39.7%
all 31 -37.6% -43.5% 35% 32% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 32% -39.7%
10% -48.9% 29% -45.4%
15% -53.9% 26% -50.7%
20% -58.4% 23% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$68 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized−$773
Unrealized−$169
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage74d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $111 $131 +$19 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $105 −$95 (-48%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $150 $96 −$54 (-36%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $81 −$39 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $112 −$46 -41%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $149 −$103 -69%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $160 +$99 +62%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 20 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $71 −$70 -99%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 07 $71 −$70 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5 Apr 21 $24 −$24 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 Apr 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $100 +$29 +29%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5 Apr 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $50 +$5 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 20 $100 +$77 +77%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $64 +$6 +10%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $100 +$90 +90%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Apr 20 $100 +$91 +91%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $71 +$91 +129%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 209.5 Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $49 +$20 +42%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 19 $50 +$28 +57%
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 218.5 Apr 18 $48 +$25 +52%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 17 $50 −$2 -3%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $65 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $65 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $47 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $149 17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $112 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 33d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 29¢ $258 33d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 BUY Yes 54¢ $122 39d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 39d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 17¢ $160 40d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 41d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $124 52d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 67¢ $71 52d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $71 52d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 68d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 86¢ $103 68d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 89¢ $53 69d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 69d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 71¢ $100 70d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $100 70d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 77¢ $100 70d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 32¢ $50 70d
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Spurs 56¢ $100 70d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5 BUY Over 65¢ $50 70d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 114.5 BUY Over 56¢ $28 70d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 90¢ $50 70d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 91¢ $64 70d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 51¢ $100 70d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 59¢ $100 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.11 · official $412.11 (match) · 120 history records