Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
86 0x8643…85b2 sports 573 markets active 2h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$454 · open −$424
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%293W / 278L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$190
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$993
crypto 16% +$899
other 13% +$114
culture 1% −$57
politics 0% −$9
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +1900.0% +1709.5% 100% 100% +1709.5%
≤90d 34 -18.4% -26.1% 18% 18% -39.6%
all 571 +7.4% -2.8% 51% 47% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 47% -8.9%
10% -12.1% 40% -17.6%
15% -20.6% 35% -25.6%
20% -28.4% 31% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$45 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$2,129
Realized+$454
Unrealized−$424
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses293 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)571 / 573
History coverage521d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Heather Watson 66¢ 64¢ $2,198 $2,115 −$83 (-4%)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Yes 24¢ $355 $15 −$340 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$190 +1900%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 04 $100 +$108 +108%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $19 +$7 +34%
Flames vs. Ducks Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 01 $48 −$48 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Wigan Athletic FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
AHL: Cleveland Monsters vs. Lehigh Valley Phantoms Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-02-21? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Blues win? Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Seahawks Team Total: O/U 23.5 Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5) Apr 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: US Avellino 1912 (-1.5) Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Apr 01 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5) Apr 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Silva vs. Soto: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 01 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Merle Fraibel (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Apr 01 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Apr 01 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Scotland (Game 1) Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Kraken vs. Stars Apr 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will PSV vs. SC Heerenveen end in a draw? Apr 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Nepal (Game 1) Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Manchester United WFC: O/U 1.5 Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Pohang Steelers FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 30 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-23? Mar 27 $28 +$23 +80%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $100 +$32 +32%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Mar 12 $1 +$1 +212%
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) Mar 09 $6 +$1 +16%
Spread: Go Ahead Eagles (-1.5) Mar 09 $10 +$1 +13%
FC Botoşani vs. FC Petrolul Ploieşti: O/U 4.5 Mar 09 $17 +$2 +14%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 09 $50 +$26 +51%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Mar 09 $50 +$54 +108%
CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. CU Técnica de Cajamarca: O/U 4.5 Mar 09 $100 +$16 +16%
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-1.5) Mar 09 $127 +$23 +18%
Spread: National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5) Mar 06 $16 +$2 +14%
Celtics vs. Bucks Mar 04 $100 +$61 +61%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $33 +$206 +614%
UFC Fight Night: Francis Marshall vs. Erik Silva (Featherweight, Preli Mar 02 $7 +$3 +37%
Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5) Mar 02 $17 +$2 +14%
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5) Mar 02 $17 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 66¢ $301 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 66¢ $179 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 66¢ $505 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 66¢ $1,010 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 66¢ $22 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 66¢ $101 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 66¢ $101 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 66¢ $1 2h
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? SELL Yes 78¢ $208 50d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 55¢ $139 53d
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 81d
Flames vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 60¢ $50 81d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki BUY Chennai Super Kings 38¢ $4 81d
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 81d
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 43¢ $48 83d
FC Bayern München vs. Manchester United WFC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $3 83d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes $10 98d
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-03-23? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 101d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes $20 101d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 101d
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) BUY West Ham United FC $1 110d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Olympiacos B.C. 48¢ $50 110d
Celtics vs. Bucks BUY Celtics 62¢ $100 112d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 14¢ $33 112d
Spread: Go Ahead Eagles (-1.5) BUY FC Twente 65 88¢ $10 112d
Silva vs. Soto: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 72¢ $67 112d
Pohang Steelers FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 112d
Spread: National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5) BUY Ceramica Cleopatra Club 87¢ $16 112d
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-1.5) BUY Al Shabab Saudi Club 84¢ $127 112d
FC Botoşani vs. FC Petrolul Ploieşti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $17 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,129.26 · official $2,129.26 (match) · 1595 history records