Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
86 0x8646…1951 crypto 496 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$568 (-5%) realized −$568 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%481W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$23
14 days−$2
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$62
other 6% −$2
finance 6% +$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 278 -1.5% -10.9% 96% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 496 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -10.0%
all 496 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$18 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$568
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses481 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)496 / 496
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$2 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 32m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $29 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 2d
BNB Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.45 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records