Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8648…2241 weather 518 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,641 (+1143%) realized +$1,642 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate4%32W / 760L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day204.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$283
7 days−$287
14 days−$294
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$9
weather 28% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 511 +1.3% -8.3% 4% 4% -84.6%
≤30d 792 -2.3% -11.6% 4% 3% -72.2%
≤90d 792 -2.3% -11.6% 4% 3% -72.2%
all 792 -2.3% -11.6% 4% 3% -72.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 3% -72.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 3% -74.9%
15% -27.8% 3% -77.3%
20% -34.9% 3% -79.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1,642
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses32 / 760
Open positions16
Markets (closed)792 / 518
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day204.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 351 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 21? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Geno Stone lead the NFL in interceptions this season? Jun 15 $0 $0 +1812%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 24? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Joe Burrow be the Top Fantasy Quarterback of the 2025-26 NFL Regu Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on February 26? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 21? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on February 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on February 26? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 21? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 21? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on February 1 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tessa Thompson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 15 $0 +$2 +4045%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Ma Jun 15 $0 −$2 -4408%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 23? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 18? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or higher on February 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 202 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PLP win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assemb Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 19? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on February 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 42°F or higher on February Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 3500 history records