Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x8649…ba57 sports 403 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,266 (+11%) realized +$1,309 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%215W / 181L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$223
7 days+$1,110
14 days+$1,077
30 days+$1,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$962
other 1% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 +15.1% +4.1% 55% 54% +3.8%
≤30d 396 +10.3% -0.2% 54% 53% -0.8%
≤90d 396 +10.3% -0.2% 54% 53% -0.8%
all 396 +10.3% -0.2% 54% 53% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 53% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 52% -10.3%
15% -18.5% 51% -18.9%
20% -26.4% 49% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$1,309
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses215 / 181
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions5
Markets (closed)396 / 403
History coverage29d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner 4ikibamboni 47¢ 100¢ $28 $60 +$32 (+113%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 58¢ 64¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 53¢ 36¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-32%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 41¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
ITF Irvine: Veronica Miroshnichenko vs Tatum Evans Veronica Miroshnichenko 39¢ 37¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
ITF Tulsa: William Manning vs Braden Shick William Manning 53¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $64 +$62 +97%
Set 1 Winner: Rakotomanga vs Ristic Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Set 1 Winner: Yastremska vs Maria Jun 17 $6 +$5 +83%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $32 +$33 +101%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $28 +$22 +76%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $33 +$40 +124%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $98 +$134 +137%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel Jun 17 $33 +$44 +134%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
ITF Mohammedia: Diae El Jardi vs Zeel Desai Jun 17 $7 +$8 +119%
ITF Lourinha: Adhithya Ganesan vs Rigele Te Jun 17 $21 +$29 +140%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $32 +$26 +79%
Set 1 Winner: Hruncakova vs Ku Jun 17 $35 −$30 -86%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $13 +$14 +105%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $32 +$23 +70%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $0 $0 +72%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
ITF Ystad: June Bjork vs Isabel Skoog Jun 17 $14 +$16 +109%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Carlos Giraldi vs Giannicola Misasi Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli Jun 17 $18 +$12 +70%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Jun 17 $1 +$1 +114%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariia Masiianskaia vs Nancy Lee Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
ITF Sapporo: Tori Kinard vs Yuzuha Negishi Jun 17 $32 −$32 -99%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $33 +$37 +114%
ITF Sapporo: Stefani Webb vs Mutsumi Uemura Jun 17 $26 +$30 +114%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $32 +$30 +93%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $32 +$26 +79%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $32 −$32 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $33 +$47 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini Jun 16 $4 +$6 +124%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $32 −$32 -99%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Anna-Lena Friedsam Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 58¢ $32 9m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 41¢ $1 13m
ITF Irvine: Veronica Miroshnichenko vs Tatum Evans BUY Veronica Miroshnichenko 39¢ $0 14m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $32 49m
ITF Tulsa: William Manning vs Braden Shick BUY William Manning 58¢ $32 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 50¢ $32 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 50¢ $32 1h
ITF Tulsa: William Manning vs Braden Shick BUY William Manning 49¢ $32 1h
Set 1 Winner: Rakotomanga vs Ristic BUY Ristic 56¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 47¢ $29 2h
Set 1 Winner: Yastremska vs Maria BUY Maria 54¢ $6 2h
ITF Lourinha: Mert Alkaya vs Matisse Bobichon BUY Mert Alkaya 58¢ $0 3h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 49¢ $32 3h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 45¢ $33 3h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 56¢ $28 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 43¢ $33 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $33 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $24 4h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 44¢ $33 4h
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel BUY Cosme de Ravel 42¢ $33 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Barbora Palicova 47¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 40¢ $4 5h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 39¢ $33 5h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 41¢ $33 6h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 45¢ $33 6h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 55¢ $32 6h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 58¢ $0 6h
ITF Lourinha: Adhithya Ganesan vs Rigele Te BUY Adhithya Ganesan 41¢ $21 6h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 42¢ $33 6h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 48¢ $13 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.34 · official $118.05 (match) · 886 history records