Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
86 0x864a…7cac sports 1232 markets active 2h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$392 (-0%) realized −$408 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%675W / 554L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$539est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$549
14 days+$558
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$399
other 4% −$737
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +4.6% -5.3% 69% 69% -16.6%
≤30d 89 +7.7% -2.6% 67% 67% -8.5%
≤90d 350 -1.1% -10.5% 60% 59% -9.7%
all 1229 -1.6% -11.0% 55% 54% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 54% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 46% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 38% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 30% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$165 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized−$408
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses675 / 554
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$539
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1229 / 1232
History coverage265d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 88¢ 88¢ $384 $381 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 68¢ 76¢ $145 $163 +$18 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $166 +$43 +26%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $393 +$84 +21%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $712 +$171 +24%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 24 $190 +$79 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $44 −$44 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $491 +$214 +44%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $120 +$45 +38%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $637 −$356 -56%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 23 $176 +$77 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $115 −$113 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $287 +$45 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,399 −$1,390 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$11 +11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $58 +$69 +119%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 21 $187 +$78 +42%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $22 +$35 +158%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Montreal Alouettes vs. Edmonton Elks Jun 20 $78 +$118 +152%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 20 $390 +$151 +39%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 19 $47 +$23 +49%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $344 +$170 +49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $147 −$145 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 18 $172 +$73 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $135 +$21 +16%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $232 +$53 +23%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 18 $204 +$77 +38%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $139 +$22 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $422 +$90 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $180 +$78 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $318 −$316 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$10 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $142 +$30 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$181 +180%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 15 $200 −$199 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $635 +$164 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $206 +$27 +13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $78 +$45 +57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 +$97 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $348 +$69 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $171 +$120 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $48 +$119 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $82 +$71 +86%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 +$13 +17%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 13 $225 +$78 +35%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $178 −$176 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $385 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $166 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $197 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $197 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $180 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $180 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $179 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $173 1h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 68¢ $147 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $44 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $34 6h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 70¢ $190 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $120 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 73¢ $114 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 73¢ $114 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 68¢ $96 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 69¢ $98 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 69¢ $106 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 70¢ $109 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $20 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $61 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 60¢ $115 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 69¢ $176 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $491 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $287 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 82¢ $191 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 82¢ $222 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 82¢ $222 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 82¢ $216 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 82¢ $214 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.85 · official $544.85 (match) · 2653 history records